casinoo

    <b:if cond='data:blog.metaDescription != &quot;&quot;'>
        <meta expr:content='data:blog.metaDescription' name='og:description'/>
    </b:if>
    <meta expr:content='data:blog.title' property='og:site_name'/>
    <meta expr:content='data:blog.homepageUrl' name='twitter:domain'/>
    <meta expr:content='data:blog.pageName' name='twitter:title'/>
    <b:if cond='data:blog.postImageUrl'>
      <meta content='summary_large_image' name='twitter:card'/>
      <meta expr:content='data:blog.postImageUrl' name='twitter:image'/>
    <b:else/>
      <meta content='summary' name='twitter:card'/>
      <b:if cond='data:blog.postImageThumbnailUrl'>
        <meta expr:content='data:blog.postImageThumbnailUrl' name='twitter:image'/>
      </b:if>
    </b:if>
    <meta expr:content='data:blog.pageName' name='twitter:title'/>
    <b:if cond='data:blog.metaDescription'>
      <meta expr:content='data:blog.metaDescription' name='twitter:description'/>
    </b:if>
    <!-- Social Media meta tag need customer customization -->
    <meta content='Facebook App ID here' property='fb:app_id'/>
    <meta content='Facebook Admin ID here' property='fb:admins'/>
    <meta content='@username' name='twitter:site'/>
    <meta content='@username' name='twitter:creator'/> 
  <b:skin><![CDATA[/*
-----------------------------------------------
Blogger Template Style
Name:        Best
Author :     http://www.Way2themes.com
License:     Free Version
----------------------------------------------- */
/* Variable definitions
-----------------------
<Variable name="maincolor" description="Primary Color" type="color" default="#f1284e"  value="#f1284e"/>
<Variable name="maindarkcolor" description="Primary Dark Color" type="color" default="#19232d"  value="#19232d"/>
-----------------------
*/
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.stumbleupon:before{content:"\f1a4"}.top-bar-social .tumblr:before, .bottom-bar-social .tumblr:before{content:"\f173"}.top-bar-social .vine:before, .bottom-bar-social .vine:before{content:"\f1ca"}.top-bar-social .stack-overflow:before, .bottom-bar-social .stack-overflow:before{content:"\f16c"}.top-bar-social .linkedin:before, .bottom-bar-social .linkedin:before{content:"\f0e1"}.top-bar-social .dribbble:before, .bottom-bar-social .dribbble:before{content:"\f17d"}.top-bar-social .soundcloud:before, .bottom-bar-social .soundcloud:before{content:"\f1be"}.top-bar-social .behance:before, .bottom-bar-social .behance:before{content:"\f1b4"}.top-bar-social .digg:before, .bottom-bar-social .digg:before{content:"\f1a6"}.top-bar-social .instagram:before, .bottom-bar-social .instagram:before{content:"\f16d"}.top-bar-social .pinterest:before, .bottom-bar-social .pinterest:before{content:"\f0d2"}.top-bar-social .delicious:before, .bottom-bar-social .delicious:before{content:"\f1a5"}.top-bar-social .codepen:before, .bottom-bar-social .codepen:before{content:"\f1cb"}.top-bar-social .email:before, .bottom-bar-social .email:before{content:"\f0e0"}.top-bar-social ul#social a:hover {color: $maindarkcolor;opacity: 1;}.bottom-bar-social ul#social a:hover {color: $maincolor;opacity: 1;}.top-bar-menu {float: left;}.top-menu ul {overflow: hidden;list-style: none;padding: 0;margin: 0;}.top-menu ul li {float: left;display: inline-block;list-style: none;padding:0;}.top-menu ul li a {padding: 12px 16px;display: block;border: none !important;text-decoration: none;line-height: inherit;font-size: 14px;font-weight: normal;color:#fff;}.top-menu ul li:first-child a {padding-left:0;}.selectnav {display:none}#header-wrapper {background: #fff;}#header-wrappers {color: $maindarkcolor;padding: 20px 0 20px;margin: 0 auto;}#header-inner {background-position: left;background-repeat: no;}.headerleft img {height: auto;margin: 0 0 0;}.headerleft h1, .headerleft h1 a, .headerleft h1 a:hover, .headerleft h1 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TOB v1 Testing Results: 75% Win Rate, 0.62% Drawdown

The results are in!

There are a lot of trading systems available on the internet. But most of the blog posts and YouTube videos out there only show you a few well-chosen examples and stop there.

Those resources are fantastic for education, but they are just the tip of the iceberg.

What you do after you learn a trading system, will determine if you will succeed or not.

That is why I'm showing you the actual testing results of a very specific trading plan.

You can get the complete trading plan for this backtest here. This is the TOB strategy, version 1 (codename: Aardvark).

Remember: You can give 100 traders the exact same trading plan and they will get 100 different results. So it's important to test the plan for yourself and see how YOUR results compare. It will depend on your personality, how you interpret the rules and see the markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results. But certainly prevents you from trading blind.

UPCOMING EVENT: Get a free ticket to the Online Trading Summit with 30+ traders (time limited)
Here we go…

Currency Pairs Tested
I actually backtested 27 pairs in Forex Tester, but analyzing the results of every pair would make this blog post way too long.

So I'm going to show you the results for the major currency pairs.

AUDUSD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
NZDUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
USDJPY
The results of these pairs is a good indicator of if the trading system will work or not, since these are they most liquid pairs. These pairs were tested from January 2001 until present.

Remember, there are limitations to Backtesting, but it is the essential first step to developing your trading system. It is also important to test a pair multiple times. These are the results of only one manual test.

We will get into optimizations in future blog posts.

This will give you a good idea of the entire process behind developing a solid trading system.

To get the complete roadmap for free, download this PDF.

Overall Results
Here is what we get when we combine all of these tests into a portfolio.
TOB v11 chart

The initial results of this system are promising.

Yes, I know what you are saying right now…

18% return over 16-ish years sucks!

Yeah, I agree.

However, remember that the profit target on this version is only 1R.

Therefore, there can be much more profit potential, if I tweak the exit. But the key result here is the super low drawdown and high win rate.

Also, these results are only from 7 currency pairs. What happens if you trade 27 currency pairs?

Only more testing will tell us the answer. More on that in future posts.

However, a 0.62% drawdown and 75% win rate is a fantastic start.

Overall stats

According to the risk analysis, the biggest drawdown that you could expect to see is 2%.

That is excellent.

Risk analysis

So there is potential to increase the return on this strategy and make more money by trading more pairs.

That's enough for me to move forward with more testing.

Onward!

Now let's break down the results from each currency pair in the test. This will show us if there are pairs that we need to exclude from our live trading.

Charts and metrics are from the TradingStats website.

AUDUSD Backtesting Results
AUDUSD stats

There weren't too many trades with this pair, but the win rate was really high.

AUDUSD win rate

At a combined 85% win rate, this pair certainly deserves consideration for the final cut. The win rate was about the same for both longs and shorts, so no bias there.

EURUSD Backtesting Results
EURUSD graph

The overall return on this pair was much higher than the average. However, the drawdown was much higher too.

So we should keep an eye on this pair in future tests, when we increase the profit target. This might turn out to be a rockstar pair for this strategy.

EURUSD Win Rate

Win rate was a little higher than average, so that's a good sign too.

GBPUSD Backtesting Results
GBPUSD equity chart

The return on this pair was about average. It struggled a little in the beginning, but it turned out to be net profitable.

GBPUSD testing results stats

The win rate was above average, with shorts winning a little more than longs. It's not enough of a difference to only trade shorts however.

NZDUSD Backtesting Results


This pair had a low return and traded flat for most of the end of the test. I would want to retest this pair to see if I missed some trades after 2014.

But if the results are similar in future tests, then this is a pair that I might exclude from live trading.



The win rate wasn't too bad, just a little below average.

USDCAD Backtesting Results


If there is a currency pair on this list that we might want to leave out, it is USDCAD. While most pairs show pretty consistent results through the 2007 to 2017 period, this pair has losses.



The win rate is below average on this pair.

Another reason to possibly exclude it.

USDCHF Backtesting Results


Wow, the results on this pair are great. I'll have to test it a couple more times, but this looks very promising.



The win rate is on par with the average, so no issues here.

USDJPY Backtesting Results


Look at the drawdown on this sucker!

Really low.

The biggest issue was the lack of trades.

I may have been tired when I was testing this, so it's certainly worth another couple of backtests.



The win rate is phenomenal, so it is certainly worth putting this on the short list. Again, I would like to see more trades.

Conclusion
I hope that this shows you the power of backtesting.

This is just the first step, more to come in future posts. One of the things that would need to be considered in future analysis is the time of day that these trades are taken.

If we need more trades, we can possibly drop down to the 4-hour chart.

Some people think that backtesting is only for automated trading strategies.

Not true.

It is essential for manual/discretionary traders too. Backtesting also works if you use multiple timeframes for your analysis.

To see the complete backtesting results of TOB version 1 (Aardvark), join the FTSD Program. It is available in Level 5, along with the results from other trading systems.

But don't take my word for it.

Test it for yourself! Download Forex Tester or use a free platform and start testing.




Disclaimer: Some links on this page are affiliate links. We do make a commission if you purchase through these links, but it does not cost you anything extra and we only promote products and services that we personally use and wholeheartedly believe in. A portion of the proceeds are donated to my charity partners.
https://www.tradingheroes.com/tob-v1-testing-results/

5 Most Overlooked Keys to Successful Forex Trading

Forget about trading systems for a minute. Let's talk about the other keys to successful Forex trading.

If you listen closely, you will hear successful traders mention these things. But many times, they are not emphasized nearly enough. So in this post, I'll highlight the five most overlooked keys to success in trading.

1. Backtesting
I've noticed that there is one thing, more than anything else, that gets glazed over in trader interviews and trading presentations…

The power of backtesting.

For example, I went to a Meetup this past weekend to learn about how this guy trades Forex.


SEE ALSO: How this Trader Was Able to Quit His Dream Job to Trade for a Living

His presentation was good and it lasted about two hours. His Trader Personality needs a high win rate to feel successful. Therefore, that is what he worked on and his win rate is really high.

It's 90%+, for some strategies and currency pairs.

I'm taking him at his word here, I didn't see any verified results. But based on what he said, I believe him. The trade-off is that he has a lower average R multiple per trade.

Remember, there are no free lunches. There is always a trade-off.

However, the point is, that out of this 120+ minute presentation, he spent about 5 minutes on backtesting. He and his trading buddy backtested the crap out of their stop loss placement strategy.

It was actually a funny story because he said that he learned a stop loss strategy from a famous trader. He went back to that trader after he was finished testing and showed him the results.

The famous trader was floored and said:

You actually tested that? Nobody I talk to does that.

From what I could tell, most of the people at the Meetup could care less about this story. Nobody took notes on that part.

But to me, that was one of the most important points in his presentation.

Too bad he didn't spend a little more time on it.

The moral of the story is that you need to backtest to gain confidence in your system and to figure out what actually works.

If you want to get started with Forex backtesting read this post.

…and don't just take my word for it.

These professional traders say the same thing here, here, here and here.

2. Mindset
Sunrise Meditation

Are you trading poorly because you're embarrassed?

That might not make sense right now, but according to Joan Soktin, that is the most common reason why many people are not where they want to be financially. If you want to learn more, you can listen to that interview.

The point is that we may not be fully aware of why we do the things we do. Our subconscious programming determines most of our everyday lives, regardless if we realize it or not.

So you need to take a step back and ask yourself why you do the things you do…

Why do you take profits too early?
Why do you revenge trade?
Why do you seem to make the same mistakes over and over?
Meditation can help with this process. But there are other ways that we can improve our mindset.

One thing we can do more often is forgive yourself. Many times, we are way too hard on ourselves and tell ourselves mean things.

If you can give yourself some leeway to make a few mistakes, you will be surprised at how much more you will accomplish.

This is just one of the mindset strategies that can help you become a better trader.

Almost all successful traders that I have talked to say that your mindset is much more important than your actual trading system. In fact, that is what we focused on the most during the London Conference.

To learn the mindset skills that can make you a better trader, I recommend listening to this interview and this interview.

3. Personality Matching
Matching personality

Most trading courses say that their system is the best system in the world and it is the only one that you should be trading.

Sure, it might be great.

But unless you understand your trading personality, there is a very good chance that it's not great for you. Even if you had the most profitable trading system ever, you will probably still lose money.

Find out why here.

…and they have to talk in those absolute terms because they are in business to sell courses.

Just like all of the hot women/men out there are not good marriage material, not all of the profitable trading systems out there will match your personality.

To learn how to figure out your Trading Personality, read this post.

…when it comes to your dating personality…sorry, but you will have to find another blog for that.

4. Different Colored Glasses
Everyone sees the world differently.

Woman in car

Me.

You.

That famous trader on the internet.

Just remember this, every time you listen to a trader. Many of them will talk in terms of absolutes.

…you can only make 25% per year in Forex trading.

…you should risk 2% per trade.

But remember that this is THEIR reality.

It might not be your reality.

You might be able to make 60% per year trading the exact same system. Your risk tolerance may only allow you to risk 0.5% per trade.

So learn what you can from them.

Just keep in mind that the only absolutes are what work for you.

5. Incremental Automation
A lot of newer traders I talk to think that their trading has to be completely manual or completely automated.

Not true.

You can automate certain parts of your trading and keep certain parts manual. This is called Incremental Automation.

For example, you can enter your trades manually, then turn on a trading bot to trail your exit stop. Or you could setup trading alerts that notify you of your favorite chart patterns.

Even simple alerts on TradingView can help you stay on top of your trades.


Final Thoughts on the Keys to Successful Forex Trading
So those are the five keys to Forex trading success, that I feel don't get enough love.

Everyone talks about entries/ exits and trading systems. They are important, for sure.

But I would argue that these things are even more important.

Happy trading!
https://www.tradingheroes.com/keys-successful-forex-trading/

How to Maximize Cryptocurrency Returns with the Baseball Cap Chart Pattern

As I write this, Bitcoin has just hit $18,000 for the first time. Crazy right?! This is when I believe that the word “bubble” starts to become very relevant.

The office manager at your job, your neighbor and your hair stylist are now going to start talking about Bitcoin, if they aren't already.

….wait for it….wait for it…

We saw this in the dot com boom, the real estate boom and every other bubble in human history. If you don’t believe me, read the book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, which can be found here.

But isn’t this new blockchain technology here to stay?

Certainly.

However, just like the tech companies of the dot com bomb, a large majority of cryptocurrencies out there will not survive. A lot of them have no product and are just jumping on the bandwagon to make a quick buck on an ICO.

So how can you protect yourself and still try to maximize your profits?

I believe that one of the keys is to wait for the Baseball Cap chart pattern.

In this post, I’ll show you why it works, when it will probably stop working and I’ll share with you my own personal experience that has led me to use this pattern.

Table Of Contents

The Baseball Cap Chart Pattern Explained

Baseball Cap Examples

GameCredits

Ripple

When the Baseball Cap Cryptocurrency Pattern Will Stop Working

Conclusion

The Baseball Cap Chart Pattern Explained
It’s called a Baseball Cap because it looks sort of like the top of a hat and a bill.

Like this example in Litecoin.

Litecoin chart

The pattern happens because of the nature of the cryptocurrency market right now. Here's a video that I did that explains the technical chart pattern.



Cryptocurrencies are not something that the general public understands very well yet.

Almost everyone understands how real estate and stocks work. But how can you create a new currency out of thin air?

…is a common question.

So the prices of cryptocurrencies are much more susceptible to pump and dumps.

When an uneducated public learns about a new feature that was added to a cryptocurrency, a rush of new buyers can come in and inflate the price very quickly. Once they find out that the currency wasn't as good as they thought, or they get bored, they will dump it and move on to the next “hot tip.”

A rapid rise can also be caused by a newly educated public that just figured out legitimate reasons why they should be buying a certain cryptocurrency.

But how can you tell the difference between the two?

Research and the Baseball Cap pattern are your best weapons in this emerging market. They won’t always be right, but they will greatly increase your odds of picking the currencies that will keep appreciating.

After all, that’s why they call it trading…and not easymoneymaking.

Before you go buying any ol’ crypto with this pattern, you first have to understand that this will only work with cryptocurrencies that actually have a solid use case and real world value.

So you need to do your research before you even look at a chart. Understand why the cryptocurrency is useful and if it solves a big problem.

It’s like buying a tech stock.

This research will also help you hang on to a currency if the price blasts off. It can be easy to take your profit too early if you don’t have a good reason to keep holding the currency.

Once you have a few cryptocurrencies that you have researched and believe in, then it’s time to look at the charts.

Yes, it can be tempting to buy when a chart is going parabolic, like this…

Bitcoin chart

After you have done all that research, you will probably think that the currency is going to the moon and it doesn’t matter where you buy.

Hold on there tiger.

You need to optimize your entry by waiting for the Baseball Cap.

What goes straight up, must come down.

So wait for the market to pull back and stabilize at a defined level. This is where the market is catching its breath and could go on another run.

If price continues to drop and does not stabilize, then you know that there is nobody there to “catch” the price and it is not time to get into the market yet.

How long should the market stabilize? Based on past results, two months or more is ideal, but the minimum seems to be one month.

Here's an example of a long base that happened in EOS.

Baseball Cap chart pattern base

Understanding this one simple pattern can save you a ton of money and protect you from a world of hurt.

Of course, there are no guarantees in trading and price could continue to drop from a base. But that sure beats buying at the top and getting rocked.

FOMO is a bitch, avoid it at all costs.

Baseball Cap Examples
Now let's take a look at two charts. One where the pattern worked and one where it didn't.

GameCredits
This is a cryptocurrency that I believe won't make it. They have created a currency that allows video game players to do things like earn money and buy upgrades inside games.

Basically a universal game credits system. Players could earn money in one game and use them to buy upgrades in another game.

There is probably a need for it. But my question is: Why not just use another cryptocurrency like Bitcoin or Ripple? That would be a much better incentive for game players because people could spend that money in the real world.

When your local coffee shop starts accepting Ripple, of course.

Thus, while many cryptocurrencies have been taking off, GameCredits has languished. It is sill forming the Baseball Cap chart pattern, but the research side of the equation does not warrant a buy, in my opinion.

That could change of course. But this is an example where looking at the pattern alone won't make you any money. The fundamental analysis has to be solid too.

GameCredits

Ripple
I actually started buying Ripple at a bad time. That was before I figured out this chart pattern. I was buying it on the first big push, at about $0.35.

After the first big drop, I got smart and looked for a basing level. That's when I was able to get some at about $0.24, a much better price.

We had to wait awhile for this pattern to play out, but it eventually did.

Ripple will probably be one of the cryptocurrencies that succeeds, in my opinion. Bloomberg just added it their terminal, along with Litecoin and Ethereum.

Ripple chart

When the Baseball Cap Cryptocurrency Pattern Will Stop Working
I believe that there will be a point when this chart pattern will stop working.

Once cryptocurrencies become mainstream and more heavily traded like stocks, futures or Forex, then you will probably have to look to the more traditional technical chart patterns to make trading decisions, like support/resistance, head and shoulders, the pin bar and the outside bar.

In addition, if the cryptocurrency market ever goes through an extended bear market, then all bets are off and the Baseball Cap won't work. This pattern relies on the strong bullish bias of the cryptocurrency market right now.

You have to remember that there is a huge pool of potential cryptocurrency buyers who don't know anything about the market right now. Once they learn about cryptocurrencies and there are no more new buyers left, then we will stop having these huge price run ups.

Excessive government regulation could also slow down the growth of cryptocurrencies and kill the bullish bias.

Until then, keep an eye out for this chart pattern because it can be very profitable. This video will show you some examples.



Again, remember that past performance does not guarantee future results and you need to do your fundamental research on a cryptocurrency before you even look at a chart.

Conclusion
I recently met a guy who has literally multiplied his retirement account by purchasing Ether. His strategy was to buy when he started to see price come down, because he believed that it will eventually go back up.

That’s really dangerous.

It works well in very bullish markets, but you will get slaughtered in even a moderate bear market.

This guy has since pulled out his original investment capital and now only has his gains in the market. He even admits that he was lucky.

The moral of the story is to keep your risk low and don’t go “all-in.” Watch for the Baseball Cap chart pattern because it can help you find a good place to buy.

Luck is not a strategy.

Do your homework, be patient and stay safe in this wild and crazy market. Things will only get more volatile from here.
https://www.tradingheroes.com/cryptocurrency-baseball-cap-chart-pattern/

3 Things Successful Traders Have in Common

After talking to hundreds of traders over the years, there are really only three things that separate the successful traders from the unsuccessful ones. Like most things that work well in trading, these three things are very simple.

Note that I said simple, not easy.

So if you are still searching for consistently profitable trading, then it is likely that you need to improve in one of these key areas.

The Right Trading System
Trading Computer

I’m not talking about a trading system that makes the most money.

All successful traders have found a trading system or systems that match their unique personality.

That could mean a high win rate (but low R multiple) trend following system, or it could be low win rate (but high R multiple) countertrend system.

…or whatever. There are so many ways to trade successfully.

UPCOMING EVENT (Sep 2018): The Online Trading Summit with Rolf Schlotmann, Yvan Byeajee and...

But the key is to find trading systems that work for you.

How do you do that? Well, it boils down to figuring out the following:

Are you more of a fundamental trader, technical trader, or a little of both?
If you are a technical trader, are you a breakout, trend or countertrend trader?
What is your ideal trading timeframe? Is it day, swing or position trading?
What is your overall risk tolerance?
As soon as you can confidently answer at least three of those questions, then the number of trading systems that would match your personality drops significantly. This makes it much easier to find a trading system match.

Action Step
If you haven’t downloaded my free book on how to pick the right trading system for you, then I would highly recommend that you go here and download it before you continue reading this post.

It will give you more details on how to figure out the best trading system for you.

An Upgraded Mindset
Happy man

Yes, upgraded.

I have not heard of any successful traders, who were successful from day one.

Successful traders are made, not born.

We have to work on our mindsets in order to withstand the unique challenges of trading.

The right trading mindset consists of several different components:

Perseverance
Ability to put in regular work
Being able to withstand drawdowns
Not getting too excited when a trade goes your way
Following your trading plan
…to name a few.

You probably need to work on one or more of these traits (like all traders), so here's how to get started…

Action Step
In order to upgrade your mindset, you need to understand your current weaknesses. This might take a little longer than you may think because your weaknesses may be hard to figure out.

As I have worked on my own weaknesses and watched others do the same, one thing is very apparent. A majority of our bad habits, neuroses and insecurities, come from events in our childhoods.

We may think that we have all grown up to be well adjusted adults. But from what I have seen, nothing is further from the truth.

Most of us still have mental weaknesses that trading will expose in a second.

So try to figure out where your trading mistakes are coming from.

Is it from bad habits that you picked up as a kid?
Is it from a traumatic experience that happened in middle school?
Many of these events lurk in our subconscious, locked away from our daily awareness. The easiest way to start exposing these subconscious thoughts is to start a daily journal.

You could write it in Evernote, but studies show that you engage more of your brain when you put pen to paper. Whichever you prefer, just start doing it.

Every day, write down your feelings about events during the day. Also write down your dreams. As you review your journal at the end of the week, you will start to see some patterns emerge.

This will help you understand why you do some of the things that you do.

…or maybe you already know what you are doing wrong, but feel helpless to fix it.

Once you identify the behavior that you want to correct, then seek out people, tools and courses that can help you fix your behavior. Here is a short list of resources I recommend.

The Advanced Traders Mindset Course
The You Get What You Trade For Course (inside the Naked Forex Forum)
Inner Talk subliminal recordings
The Power of Habit book
Talking to a friend about your challenges or seeking help from a professional can also provide another perspective. Keep working at it until you figure it out.

It's not easy, but the rewards are tremendous!

A Community of Like-Minded Individuals
Trader meetup

Finally, many successful traders have joined a community that helped them achieve their success. Sometimes, that community was just one other person.

I know a few traders who have figured it out totally on their own.

But most traders have benefited from being in the right group. You can call it the mastermind effect or group flow.

Finding the right trading group or buddy can help you with:

Education: A good community can help you learn faster because there are more knowledgable people in the group. It's like when elite athletes train with other elite athletes to get better at their sport. You are the average of the 5 people you surround yourself with, so surround carefully.
Identifying signals: If you are in a group that trades the same systems, then you can help each other spot trading opportunities. This can prevent you from missing those big trades. A group can also help you stay away from bad trades.
Moral support: When you aren't trading well, a good community can keep you positive and prevent you from revenge trading.
If you don't find a compatible trading buddy or group on the first try, don't get discouraged. Keep working at it.

Here’s how I would recommend getting started…

Action Step
If you would like to reap the benefits of a trading community, there are a couple of ways that you can go about it. Some people prefer to work with one or two people, while others like the social interaction of a larger group.

There is no right or wrong answer. If you aren't sure what is the best for you, try both and see how you like them.

Find a Trading Buddy
I have personally found a trading buddy to be a HUGE help. This person helps keep you accountable and you can bounce trading ideas off each other.

It can be tough to find the right person however, and you may need to try out several different people before you find a good match. To find a trading buddy, you can go to a conference or talk to other traders in the trading courses you have purchased.

Based on my experience, here are some things that you should look for in a trading buddy:

In a similar timezone: It can work if you are in very different timezones, but it is much easier to schedule conversations if you are in a similar timezone and have similar work schedules.
Mutual respect: You must respect each other or your arrangement will fail. You must respect the other person's time and stay accountable. Be the person you want to work with and you will attract similar types of people.
Similar trading knowledge level: If you know a lot about trading and the other person doesn’t, then you will always be waiting for them to catch up. It works best when you have a similar level of knowledge.
Different strengths and weaknesses: It helps a lot when your strengths are their weaknesses and vice versa. This allows one person to be the “expert” and coach the other.
Dedication: Is this person committed to learning how to trade or are they just “trying it out?” You want to make sure that your trading buddy is dedicated to learning how to trade. There are no guarantees of course, but the more dedicated the person is, the better.
Find a Trading Community
I would recommend seeking out private online communities where there is a specific focus and it is moderated by a team that you trust.

That means that you should stay off any of the big Forex forums out there like BabyPips or Forex Factory. There are always a few idiots on those forums that bring the level of the forum down to third grade name calling.

There are many private communities out there, so do some searching and find something that appeals to you.

If you need some help getting started, here are a few resources that might work.

First, I would recommend our free Facebook group. If you want to learn how to test and develop a trading system, then our paid Forex Trading Strategy Development Course can help too.

Another one of the best paid forums out there is the Naked Forex Now Community. The reason I always recommend it is because you get access to so many resources, for one low monthly price.

Walter also does a great job of highlighting other successful strategies from people in the group, not only his own. Everyone in the group is cool and they try to help each other out.

You can also join a Meetup group in your area.

Again, there are many others out there.

So do your research and find the one that you like.

Conclusion
Although these three keys to trading success may seem simple enough to take advantage of, they can be quite hard to get right. But now that you understand their importance, it's time to get to get to work.

Follow the action steps in each of the sections above and you will be on your way to following in the footsteps of successful traders before you. It takes hard work and dedication to succeed at trading.

But so does anything worthwhile in life.

Keep going…





Disclaimer: Some links on this page are affiliate links. We do make a commission if you purchase through these links, but it does not cost you anything extra and we only promote products and services that we personally use and wholeheartedly believe in. A portion of the proceeds are donated to my charity partners.
https://www.tradingheroes.com/successful-traders-common/

Three Drives Pattern Explained

The Three Drives Pattern is a well-known harmonic chart pattern. It is a relative of the ABCD pattern, for reasons you will learn about in a bit.

This pattern was mentioned in Robert Prechter‘s famous book “Elliot Wave Principle.”

In this post, I will explain how to identify it and show you how it is traded. If you want to learn how this pattern works, this post will give you everything you need to know.

But that's not all…

I will also show you how to backtest the pattern so you can find out if it is really something that you want to pursue in your live trading.

Here we go…

How to Identify the Three-Drive
The pattern consists of a series of three higher highs or lower lows, which signals a potential reversal.

SEE ALSO: How this Trader Was Able to Quit His Dream Job to Trade for a Living

Sometimes the reversal can be a huge move because the built-up pressure is finally released. Not always of course, but that is what happens when it works well.

Are there time and distance requirements for the moves? Some books say yes, others say no. So I'm going to take the most basic explanation that I think all Three Drives traders can agree on.

Let's take a look at how it works…

Bullish Three Drives
Bullish 3 drives example

In the bullish version of this pattern, there are three drives or pushes in the upward direction. After each push, there is a retracement, marked A and B. The retracements are a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the previous drive.

The next drive needs to end near the 1.272 Fibonacci extension for the price action to qualify for the for the pattern. When price gets close to the drive 3 point at the 1.272 extension, you would put in an order to sell.

Your target would be the 0.618 retracement of the entire move from point zero to the top of drive 3.

At least that is how the textbooks teach it. So that is where you should start testing it.

Let's take a look at a real example, so you can get a better idea of how this works.

This is the GBPUSD 4 hour chart on May 16, 2016, on TradingView and Oanda data. For those of you who want to follow along at home.

Here's what the chart looks like when we mark point zero.

Chart 1 - Point Zero

The first retracement hits the 0.618 Fibo level almost exactly.

Chart 2 - Drive 1

Now if you Fibo the retracement, you will see that price extended way beyond the 1.272 extension. So if you were following the rules of the Three Drives Pattern exactly, this would no longer be a valid signal.

Chart 3 - Fibonacci extension violation

However, just for fun, let's keep going…

The next retracement also blows through the 0.618 retracement level.

Chart 4 - Invalid retracement

The next push hits the 1.272 Fibonacci extension exactly.

Chart 5 - Fibonacci extension

Then when we look for a profit target, the 0.618 Fibo retracement of the entire move.  In this example, that gets hit easily.

Chart 6 - Profit target

So in summary, this was not a textbook pattern, but it would have ultimately worked out. That brings up the question:

Should I follow the system exactly or should I allow the rules to be bent?

Well, that all depends on what your backtesting tells you.

Bearish Three Drives
Then of course, the bearish pattern is the same thing, but upside down.

Bearish 3 Drives

How to Trade this Harmonic Forex Pattern
Just like with any other trading strategy, different traders will trade this pattern in different ways. But let's take a look at the most commonly taught way to trade this setup.

It is a good starting point for you to do your own testing and optimization.

There are basically three ways that you could enter a trade:

Put in a pending order at the last 1.272 level, with a stop loss guess
Wait for the market to print a strong rejection bar, like a Pin Bar or Outside Bar, then enter the trade, with a stop loss on the other side of the bar
Wait for the market to break through the 1.272 level, then put in a pending order if the market drops below the 1.272 level and use the previous swing high/low as the stop loss
Most resources will tell you to wait for the level to be rejected, then put in a trade (#2). So let's go with that method for now.

Potential Optimizations
When you are testing, one way that you could potentially optimize your entry, is to look for divergence of some sort. RSI can be a good indicator to use.

RSI divergence example

As you can see from the example above, drives 2 and 3 form higher highs on the chart, but RSI forms a lower high on drive 3.

Another potential optimization is to look to see if the top of drive 3 matches up with a previous major support or resistance point. In the same example, the turning point does indeed match up with a resistance level.  Resistance level example

How to Backtest the Three Drives Pattern
Alright, now let's get down to business.

After most traders read about a trading strategy, they go directly into trading it in their live account.

…and big surprise, they lose money and they say that it doesn't work. There are so many things that can go wrong in between the time you learn a trading method and actually trading it with real money.

Here's a short list:

You misread the instructions
You are risking too much per trade and are freaking out every time your trade moves one pip
The trading method doesn't actually work and it turns out that everything on the internet is not true
You start trading it correctly and forget the rules because you didn't write them down
You think you know better and keep changing the rules
You second guess yourself and miss good trades
And more
These are natural mistakes that all humans make. Myself included. So why risk your hard-earned money on your unproven skills?

First, write down the exact rules of the system that you want to test. You can download the backtesting plan worksheet for free here. This will ensure that you do not deviate from your plan.

Next, you need to backtest your system and make sure that it has positive expectancy. Fire up Forex Tester and test your system. If it does not work in backtesting, then it certainly won't work in live trading.

Once you have a system that works in backtesting, then move it into a demo account. Do not risk real money at this point.

Only when you are comfortable in a demo account, should you even consider trading live.

To learn all of these steps in detail and much more, join the Forex Trading Strategy Development Program.

Other Resources
Here are some other resources that you can use to learn more about this chart pattern. It is always a good idea to look at how others are trading a chart pattern, to get ideas on how you can improve your strategy.

You don't have to follow them exactly and you will probably throw out a lot of the ideas. But it only takes one good idea to dramatically improve your results.

TradingView Three Drives tag – These are charts that community members have posted on the TradingView website.
YouTube videos – Here are the search results for videos related to this chart pattern.
A Close Cousin: The ABCD Pattern
One pattern that you will hear associated with the Three Drives is the ABCD Pattern. This could also be called the Two Drives pattern…I guess.

ABCD pattern

If I had to choose, I would personally start testing the Three Drives first because there is a greater chance that price will reverse after three moves, than two. Price simply has to travel a longer distance and therefore will be more “tired.”

Conclusion
So that is how you identify the Three Drives technical chart pattern. Remember that just because you see other traders using this pattern, does not mean that it will work for you.

You need to backtest it for yourself and figure out if it matches your trading personality.

Never take anyone's word that a trading system works.

Not even me 🙂

Do you own homework and you will progress much faster as a trader.



Disclaimer: Some links on this page are affiliate links. We do make a commission if you purchase through these links, but it does not cost you anything extra and we only promote products and services that we personally use and wholeheartedly believe in. A portion of the proceeds are donated to my charity partners.
https://www.tradingheroes.com/three-drives-pattern-explained/

Compounding Forex Profits: A 2,381 Percent Example

In a previous backtesting post, I revealed the results from a backtest of Trending Outside Bars. That strategy yielded an average 75% win rate and an average 18% return on seven pairs, over about 16 years.

Yeah, those results won't buy you a Ferrari any time soon.

But I presented the data that way to make a point:

It can be easy to give up on a trading strategy in backtesting when you don't make huge return every year.

That can be a big mistake, as I'll demonstrate in this post.

Reminder: Backtesting has its limitations, but it is a great start for building a trading system. Most of the successful traders I know attribute their success to backtesting, but there are different ways to learn to trade. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The Leverage of Compounding Forex Profits
You have probably read a lot about the magic of compounding Forex profits with a bunch of theoretical numbers thrown into a spreadsheet. That's a great start, but let's look at a real life example from a round of testing that I did.

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As I mentioned in the beginning, the results I presented only included seven pairs. Many traders test one pair, then they get discouraged that they only made 18% over 16 years.

So they give up and move on to the next system. Welcome to the Trading Silodrome.

But they miss two important leverage points:

Compounding
Trading more pairs/timeframes
Here's how that 18% can turn into 2,381%…

To see the complete results of this trading system, sign up for TraderEvo, our comprehensive trader training program.

Test Results with Compounding
After I did the test with seven pairs, I expanded the test to all 27 currency pairs that I want to trade live. This can potentially multiply the advantage of the system over several currency pairs. The results were quite good, but still not impressive without compounding.

This is a screenshot from my backtesting journal spreadsheet.

Backtesting trading results

Again, averages can kill your motivation. The average return for all the pairs dropped to 12.81%. On the bright side, the average win rate increased to 77.33%.

If you added the returns, as I did above in the spreadsheet, you would get a sum of 324.32%. That could cause you to give up right now. 324.32% divided by 16 years is 20.27% per year.

Pretty good, but probably not what most traders are looking for.

However, that only shows you part of the potential of the system. You need to take compounding into consideration.

Before we move on, some of you will argue that this next result isn't accurate either because most traders will have to withdraw money for living expenses, taxes, etc. Yes, that is true and you will need to build this into your calculations later. At this point, I simply want to demonstrate the full potential of the system. This can be the key realizing that you have a viable trading system, instead of giving up too soon.

Combine All Results
The key to getting your compounded return is to put all of your trades into one spreadsheet, so you can create your own calculations. Doing this will also show you your maximum number of losing trades, max drawdown, etc. That can be tough to visualize when you are only testing one Forex pair at a time.

In Forex Tester, you can simply export your backtesting results to a CSV file, then import it into your favorite analysis software, like Excel.

Export history to file

Then sort your file by trade open date.

Trade open date

Now you can set variables for your percent risk per trade and your starting balance. Then you can change those settings to see how that would affect your end result.

If you need help setting this up, here's how to do it:

Calculate the R value for each trade: (stop loss – entry price) / (close price – entry price). I wouldn't worry about the figuring out the decimal points for JPY pairs and buy vs sell. You can use the absolute value of that calculation and use another result field to add a plus or minus. For example, if you have a 3R absolute calculation, you could look at the $ amount profit/loss to determine if it should be a +3R or a -3R.
Multiply the R calculation above by a percent risk per trade field that you create. So if you are risking 1% per trade and a trade makes 3R, then you would make 3%.
Then add or subtract the percentage lost/gained on each trade from a running balance column that you create. I usually start with a $10,000 starting balance.
To get these spreadsheets, sign up for TraderEvo.

The Compounded Return
Then you will have a total compounded return at the bottom of your spreadsheet. This is the number that you should be interested in.

When I compounded this system, taking 1% risk on each trade, the final result was 2,381.48%. That works out to be 11.97% per month, on average.

Now that's more like it!

Compounded return

When I change the risk per trade to 2%, the total return changes to 53,465.93%.

That is some serious compounding.

Remember, you cannot simply risk more to make more. You have to find the balance between a good return and being able to handle the drawdowns. With more reward comes more risk.

Conclusion
This is just the first step in the Trading System Launch process.

Remember that it goes:

Backtesting > Forward Testing > Live Trading

The actual results you get in live trading will probably be a little different from your backtesting. But it is very important to start with backtesting so you know if your system has positive expectancy or not.

Before you give up on a trading system, remember to factor compounding into your calculations.

It could make all the difference.

To see the complete results of this trading system, sign up for TraderEvo.



Disclaimer: Some links on this page are affiliate links. We do make a commission if you purchase through these links, but it does not cost you anything extra and we only promote products and services that we personally use and wholeheartedly believe in. A portion of the proceeds are donated to my charity partners.
https://www.tradingheroes.com/compounding-forex-profits/